Holy War Boils Down to Riley Nelson’s Performance
Nelson looks for yardage vs. Weber St. (BYU photo)
As Riley Nelson goes on Saturday, so goes the hopes of the No. 25 BYU Cougars in their Holy War showdown with the Utah Utes.
Nelson was not a factor in last season’s 54-10 debacle in Provo, the worst BYU loss in the long series between these two in-state rivals.
He came into the game in the final five minutes after the outcome had long been decided. This season, he figures to be the key factor in the Cougars’ effort for redemption.
It really boils down to this.
If Nelson can throw the ball and complete passes against the Utes’ press coverage on Saturday, BYU will be very difficult to defeat. If he can’t deliver through the air, then this game will likely be a low-scoring, slugfest that will go down to the wire.
Both teams have had issues at offensive line so far on this young season. The Cougars have struggled running the ball between the tackles against the suspect defenses of Washington State and Weber State, while Utah’s offensive line has had issues all the way around.
The Utah defense traditionally plays tight man-to-man coverage on their opponent’s outside receivers, essentially putting their cornerbacks out on an island. The philosophy forces opposing quarterbacks to be more accurate and to throw passes into smaller windows than usual. And consistently humming the ball into tight windows hasn’t exactly been Nelson’s forte during his career.
Luckily for Riley, he has a couple of tall, talented receivers to go to. Both Cody Hoffman and Ross Apo have the ability to make plays even when they are covered. Nelson has the confidence that if he can get the ball in the same zip code of his towering duo of receivers, they will more often than not come down with the catch.
The Cougars wideouts will have a particular advantage when matched up on Utah’s 5-foot-9 cornerback Ryan Lacey. The other corner, Moe Lee, is a more rangy athlete who goes 6-foot-1.
If Nelson can find a way to connect with Hoffman and Apo, then it opens everything else up for the BYU offense. Conversely, if the Utes DBs are effective at taking away the Cougars’ two big weapons, then Utah has the ability to stuff the run and limit the Cougars’ mid-to-short range passing game.
The senior signal caller worked hard on his passing skills this past summer. Saturday will tell if all that offseason work has paid off. So far this season, Nelson has completed 66 percent of his passes, compared to 57 percent last year. However, his per completion number has fallen off, dropping from 14.8 yards per completion last season to 12.3 this year. His yards per attempt are down as well, dropping from 8.4 yards in 2011 to 8.1 in the first two games of 2012.
And although opposing teams fear Riley’s ability to make things happen with his legs, his rushing numbers are also off, averaging just 2.5 yards per carry after averaging 4.5 yards last season.
Critics have also pointed to the fact that Nelson doesn’t have a signature win as starting quarterback. Last season he defeated just two teams, Utah State and Tulsa, which finished the year with a winning record. He didn’t start against USU, but came in late and rallied the Cougars to a come from behind win. In his biggest test as a starter last season, the Cougars self-destructed in a 38-28 loss to TCU in Dallas Cowboys Stadium.
On Saturday, Riley has the chance to get that marquee win. A victory on the home field of BYU’s arch-rival in a pay-back game would certainly go a long way towards his making a name for himself as a BYU quarterback. Come Saturday, Cougar Nation will have been waiting for a total of 363 days to get the bad taste out of their mouths from last year’s game.
Defensively, BYU looks to have the upper hand on a Utah offense that is struggling and will be without starting quarterback Jordan Wynn, who was forced into retirement by yet another shoulder injury in last week’s 27-20 overtime loss at Utah State. It’s hard to imagine the Ute offense having a big day against the Cougars regardless of whether it is Jon Hays or Travis Wilson who is called upon to fill in for Wynn.
So if Nelson can manage to keep the Utah defense honest with his arm, the advantage should swing to BYU.
It’s interesting to see the difference in pass completion %, and avg. yards/catch comparisons with last year. However, it has made a difference that Hoffman was out most of the Washington State game and Apo missed the Weber State game. They are both great at catching and grabbing extra yards after the catch.
If I were Bronco, I’d be coaching Riley to keep an eye on the DB Ryan Lacey. Toss it up to either Apo or Hoffman (whoever Lacey is covering) and you’re almost sure to come up with a completion (or a Pass Interference as he gets frustrated).
Brett, I think you really nailed the key point is delivering through the air, as the run game has been abysmal this season, and won’t get any better against Utah’s defensive front.
Brett-
I’ve been watching too many BYU-Utah games over the last 7 years since I went to my first BYU-Utah game in person in 2005 in Provo to not some serious reservations about beating Utah. Whittingham always seems to have his team more ready to play than Bronco’s team and they have blown out BYU in 2008, and 2011. Mendenhall as coach has yet to have a team to dominate the Utes in a football game. It has taken a couple miracles for us to beat Utah in 2006 (Beck to Harline) 2007 (4th down play-Magic Happens to Collie), 2009 (and another prayer answered when George hauled in the pass from Hall inbetween two defenders). Whittingham is 4-3 against Mendenhall with much more decisive victories.
It just seems to me that the Utes have an easier time playing and defeating BYU and seem to be hungrier and more up to the challenge. From year to year, I actually think the teams are pretty evenly matched but I think Utah has the better head coach. In fact, we could almost say that without a couple of fortunate breaks and plays that went our way in 2006, 2007, 2009-The Utes could have beaten us 10 seasons in a row dating back to 2002 season and Whittingham could have been 7-0 against Bronco. I’d like to see BYU pummel the Utes from start to finish. The last time BYU had a decisive victory over the Utes was in 1996 when BYU had Ronnie Jenkins and rushed for over 300 yards in SLC and I think the final score was like 33-16.
Now, with all tha being said, I do think that BYU can beat Utah if Riley takes care of the football, makes good decisions and does not turn the ball over, and if the defense is dominant. I think BYU wins this game if they score itleast 24 points. My prediction is BYU 24 Utah 17…however, I thought they would beat Utah last year and we all know how that played out.
I agree that Riley’s performance is going to be key, but only in that he really needs to limit turnovers. I think that our running game is more important to the overall success of the game than Riley’s performance.
If we can run the ball, we will keep ourselves out of 3rd and long situations where Riley has to force things. In the past this is how Utah has played us so well- they stuff our run game and force us into difficult passing situations where they disrupt our timing and routes, then get to the QB.
It’s sort of a chicken-or-egg argument, but I think if we run for 150+ yards on Saturday and Riley doesn’t throw a pick, we will win regardless of how many passing yards he goes for. I don’t know that the same could be said about the inverse.
Bryan,
Agree that Utah seems to have our number (for the reason mentioned above), however I think you sell Bronco short in your comments. True, we needed last-minute heroics to beat them in ’06, ’07, and ’09, but if you remember, the only reason Utah was even in the game in ’09 was because of a huge 4th quarter comeback, and in ’06 and ’07 we led much of the game. Close victories, to be sure, but not “lucky” or “miracles”.
And, lest anyone forget, Bronco is a blocked field goal away from being 4-3 against Utah as a Head Coach.
I agree with you when you say that Utah seems to play their best against us (and we struggle to meet our potential when playing them), but I think it has more to do with personnel, matchups, and playing style than the Head Coach. Kyle’s defensive scheme is anathema to a timing-based passing offense like BYUs (no doubt part of the reason why he likes it so much).
Utah cannot handle our defense this year. The worst thing that could happen to Utah, did. The backup QBs, even if they are amazing, will not be ready for our DLs and DBs. As long as we maintain ball security and continually make progress moving the chains on offense, we win this game. If we execute well on offense, we dominate this game, and Bronco gets his first ute beatdown!
If Utah is able to cover Hoffman and Apo, and then stack the box to stop the run game, then Nelson just has to hit our TEs which cannot be ignored right now. Friel is excellent, and we’ve seen that Wilson, Mahina, and Holt can contribute if needed. Plus we got Riddley and Mathews to play slot now, so there will be plenty of options.
Riley doesn’t run as much any more because he has been given pressure not to. He tries to throw first. Less QB sneaks and draws have been designed in this year’s playbook. But when he does run, it is usually good. If we make the Utes pay for stacking the box, they will have to respect the short passing game. Then our running will take off with Alisa, Foote, and Pritchard.
I don’t see a melt down like last year happening. I do see a greatly favored BYU team this Saturday.
Max Hall was always good for a blind side fumble every game as well as a few intereceptions. Beck could not throw over the middle due to lack of depth perception. Nelson so far does not seem to make mistakes as glaring as these. He does have a tendency to throw up one “hail mary” toss each game when panicking and trying to force a play. So far no interceptions in those situations but Utah is a better if not best defense he will face and will likely turn that into a pick 6 IF nelson throws one of those this coming game. BYU defense will keep the Cougs in the game this year if needed or propel BYU to domination. The corners are lock down although beatable if opposing receivers are taller and QB is accurate (Wilson could be a threat but not Hays). Van Noy is making highlight reel films for his NFL stock at the end of the season. Kaveinga is not far behind. BYU’s offense appears to be better than Utah’s offense thus far this season. Nelson is mobile. BYU has Taysom Hill to get the job done in the bluezone after Nelson gets the team down there and unable to finish.
Every year it is almost impossible to break this game down and make any kind of conclusions about what might or might not happen. Because of the emotion of the rivalry you almost can throw everything out the window.
Wynn is out – advantage Cougars?? Not too long ago we had that same situation and got beat at home by their backup.
If we have no turnovers we will have a great chance to take this game on their home field. Utah’s defense is great at forcing BYU turnovers every year though.
Usually you rationally look at facts and make an informed decision about what the outcome will be and then bank on the opposite to happen.
WHATEVER!!! BYU by 20!
Bob
I really like the matchup of their offense to our defense. And I agree with the analysis that the difference in the game will come down to our ability on offense. I think it is apparent by now that our middle run game is not going to work, and if we try to force the issue against their stout D-line we will end up in a lot of 3rd and long situations. USU did a great job of game-planning away from the line and stretching the field. Hopefully we have been holding back on our screen game to keep it off film-I think that will be a big weapon.
I saw Hays throw a lot of balls last week that could/should have been intercepted. The USU backfield dropped a couple, and a few more were just kind of lame ducks. If we can capitalize on that and keep our own turnovers down I expect a solid win. Maybe 24-13. But I also predicted a big win last year….
Every time BYU fumbles in the Holy War a fluffy little bunny dies.
Don’t worry folks. We’ve got this one. It won’t be a blowout but it won’t come down to the last play. How do I know? With every fiber of my being, that’s how! Go cougars!
If we’re looking for good omens, the last time Riley played in Rice-Eccles was for his high school state championship where he put on a dominating performance over his future teammate James Lark. Most of the starters were on the team last year and I expect them all to show up to the game with a chip on their shoulder.
The only way I see Utah shutting Hoffman down is if they come with safety or linebacker help otherwise he’s gonna win most of the single coverage battles. The O-line will need to account for Lotulelei on every play and make sure they have a body on him.
Defensively, BYU’s first priority will be making John White IV a non-factor in the game (assuming he is playing on Saturday). The secondary will have their hands full with Devote Christopher and Dres Anderson. Both teams have iffy O-lines so it could come down to which team controls the line of scrimmage the best.
Can I just say that I am happy to see Doman is willing to keep his foot on the gas with his play calling in the last two games. So many of our losses in the past came from blown leads because Anae would go conservative with play calling and sit on a lead. I have said before that every great team needs a killer instinct and a winning attitude, and I think a lot of that comes from the OC and whether the team can see if he’s purposefully taken the boot off of the neck of an opponent or whether he keeps the pressure on the whole game. BYU has a new attitude, and it comes from the competitive nature of Doman and Nelson. I think real change has come to the BYU offense.
Brett-
I rarely disagree with your opinion but this is one time that I do. Please read my post below that I wrote in response to Seasider in your yesterday’s article.
Seasider-
I don’t know who or what your source is because I was a season ticket holder, knew some of the players and hung out with the team but you are partially correct. Yes, he and Bill Walsh like smaller and quicker players (Randy Cross who played center and guard was 6’3 260 lbs.) who were assignment sound and that it what Mike Shanahan learned from him and took with him to Denver. But, they (Walsh & McKittrick) did not want just finesse & non-physical lineman. McKittrick was a retired marine and he coached like a marine drill sergeant. I don’t know if you have ever been to boot camp but I have and that was in the Army but my son is a marine and what he shared with me is worse, three times harder than any coach puts his team through in two-a-days. MCKittrick tortured his linemen and taught them to play tough, nasty and mean. They were smaller, yes, Walsh was way ahead of other NFL coaches and his teams did very little hitting, but they trained fast and had to be precise but his lineman were warriors who gave everything they had mentally & physically. Coach Weber is soft & doesn’t coach like McKittrick but when our lineman get tough, nasty and physical and can win the war in the pits (the defense already does this) then we will play much better offensive football and we will play the kind of football that Coach Mendenhall wants to play: he wants to be able to stop the run and he wants to be able to run the ball at any time and against any team. That’s not West Coast style offense, that’s smash you in the mouth Pittsburgh Steelers style of football.
I am going to post this in Brett’s article today because I disagree with him. Yes, Nelson does have to play his best game, BUT THE GAME OF FOOTBALL WILL BE WON IN THE TRENCHES OR THE PIT, LIKE IT ALWAYS HAS BEEN AND STILL IS TODAY. If you study the characteristics of great offensive linemen you will find that one of them is that they are defensive minded and play like them, nasty, mean, physical and tough and we have not had very many like that here at BYU lately, However, there are undoubtedly more, but two who come to mind instantly are Ray Feinga and Travis Bright. Nobody messed with those two guys!
Someone please pass this along to bronco. Start Ziggy and have him bull rush their tackles every passing down. Send van noy from the other side. Ziggy will push the tackle into the qb making him back out of the pocket where van noy can chase him down. This only requires 4 players to rush leaving seven to defend any quick passes. I think Brett is right. This is Riley’s defining moment.
I have to take issue with a few of the comments above. I don’t think Kyle is a better coach than Bronco, especially for BYU. Kyle prepares his team better for big games than Bronco, but almost every year, Utah losses to a team that they should have beat (Colorado, UNLV, etc). BYU usually beats the teams they are supposed to beat and losses to the teams that are better than us. The only game I can think of where we were beat by a clearly inferior team was two years ago at Utah St. and we quickly remedied that with Bronco taking over the defense.
This is due to Bronco’s philosophy that he is espousing this week about this game being no different than any other game. Do I wish he would get up for Utah and pound the snot out of them? Yes, but I love the consistency we get with Bronco. And he is the right coach for BYU’s mission.
Secondly, I don’t think we are any better off with Utah’s backup QB playing. They actually played better offensively last week after the change. Plus look what happened to us last year with their backup QB.
Third, how can Beck have depth perception issues and be an NFL QB (still in NFL) or say that Nelson doesn’t make mistakes like Beck and Hall. Every game Riley has some really stupid throws. I love Riley, but he isn’t better than Hall or Beck.
I agree with Gary that you just never know what is going to happen with this rivalry game. Logic and statistics go out the window. We haven’t played anyone very good yet this year and I think this will be our first real test.
I’m hoping and with Hall and George as graduate assistants and with what happened last year, that we have a very different focus on the game this year. This is not just another game. I believe the team knows this and is just downplaying everything for the media. We’ll know come Saturday.
Clearly, Riley is a key factor. Despite his recent acknowledgements regarding his often arrant passes when he’s being pressured, he still continues to lob the hail marry, hoping his playmakers will adjust and get the team out of harm’s way. He’s clearly improved his accuracy and arm strength over last year, yet he continues to struggle reading defenses and going through his progressions, and seems hesitant to run with the same intensity he did last season. I’m guessing that’s more of a function of the coaches trying to develop him as more of a passing threat, than a run first scrambler (and possibly to preserve him as much as possible).
Either way, I think equally important is Bronco’s ability (or inability) to adjust during the game (particularly at halftime). As much as I hate saying it, Whittingham appears to out coach Bronco each time they’ve faced each other over the last 7 years. Although we’ve won 3 of those games, it almost always comes down to our quarterback making an amazing last second play. Enough already with the cardiac kids scenario.
We’ve got the playmakers, talent, and speed to blow this game wide open. It would be nice if we played like it from start to finish.
Closing note: Give the ball to Foote more often; he’s got big play potential every time he touches the ball.
All, interesting comments but I have to agree with Walt on this one if our O-line can give any time to Riley to pass or to open a few holes this game is BYU’s. I believe that Utah gets fired up for this game due to wanting to prove they are the right team from Utah that should be in the PAC-12 as well as the many seasons that BYU beat them during Edwards tenure. BYU 21 – Utah 20. I hope I am wrong.
Defenses that we have faced aren’t stupid… they are keying in on Riley. Both WSU and Weber had at least one person spying him to make sure he is limited in his running ability… forcing him to throw. How many times did the pocket collapse last week and Riley didn’t have anywhere to go? The only times that he got positive yards was on designed QB draws. Fortunately for the passing game he has large targets that can adjust to the ball that have been coached by Cahoon.
I agree that the line will have a big impact, but the play calling and the execution will be huge. Will Doman try to continue to run between the tackles if there is no success? Will Riley try to do too much and throw ducks that will be intercepted by a defense that knows how to play their positions? Will Doman force the U to make changes by his play calling, or will they dictate what Doman does?
It seems like the Y occasionally has forced others to adjust, but more often than not either we don’t adjust or the adjustments are too little too late.
I am hoping there will be a beatdown instigated by the nasty defense and a better offensive game plan; but I will not be surprised at all if Riley sustains an injury that keeps him out at least a half.
I’m just pumped for this game. We have to win.
…And might I add, AF Coug and baerman both made me laugh. Thanks for the lightheartedness in a time of stress.
The stats from the last 7 years of this rivalry are clear – when BYU turns the ball over and fails to stop Utah’s running game they get killed. When they don’t turn it over and do stuff Utah’s running game they win. It’s been that simple. The difference in those two stats between the wins and losses has been HUGE. The difference in all the other stats has been basically non-existent.
Yes of course Riley’s play matters. But I’d keep an eye on those two things. If BYU doesn’t turn it over and shuts down Utah’s running game, trust me Riley will do enough to win.
I am always intrigued by the writers who talk about the importance of BYU’s running game. For the entire Edwards Legacy at BYU we were a pass dominant team, specializing in short to intermediate routes, moving the change and wearing out the defense. Passing 40 to 50 times a game with a 65% completion rate, SETS UP an EFFECTIVE RUNNING GAME. At BYU we Pass and that sets up the run. Now that BYU has gone to a ” balanced” attack we are no longer an offense that worries anyone. As long as BYU emphacises the run we will be a mediocre football team and relatively boring to watch. We have never had a better corpse of receivers and we now decide to stress running the ball. I blame Mendenhall for hiring Doman, Doman for bringing in his high school option football buddy as our running back coach, and Holmoe for allowing BYU to Abandon an Offensive Passing culture which was at one time the standard every other passing team was measured against. Too bad, we had a great thing going, now we will have to watch other schools to enjoy a great passing offense. Truth be told when you have a great passing attack, the running game takes care of itself. Now we have neither. An average, at best passing game, and a below average running game. The four games mentioned above will define our season and the validate or indict our “new” and boring offensive philosophy. I have to keep watching old BYU games to remember the good ole days. Just watched BYU vs Texas A&M. Sarkisian thru for over 450 yards and enjoyed a great victory. Threw the ball about 48 times. It was fun to watch and Texas A&M just couldn’t cover our smaller and slower receivers. Our routes were great and they were run with precison and skill. Cahoon was on that team I believe……; Go Cougs I predict 17-10 Utah.
Walt-
Even if you throw 50 times a game you still have to win the war in the trenches or your QB doesn’t have enough time to pass even if the passes are short. But, Riley isn’t that type of QB that we had in the 80′s or 90′s for that matter. Even though he has improved I don’t think he has reached that level. After watching Lark the few times that he has been in there I have to say that I feel more comfortable with him in there if we are going to do a lot of passing. Regardless, Coach Mendenhall has stated that he wants to be able to stop any team’s running game and he wants to be able to run on any team. Now wanting to do that and having a team that can do it, especially the offense, is another thing.
Wow! Great insights from the bleacher fans. Riley is a very good qb, not a great qb. His “hail mary” “throw-it-up-for-grabs” passes will doom this team if he does it against any good defensive back seven. He has got to keep his passes sharp, crisp and on target. When he throws long, it has to be arched enough to allow Apo, Hoffman, Ridley, Falstaff, or whomever to get underneath, and long enough to be over the defense. Anything close will be caught by our really good receivers who will fight it away from 99% of the defensive backs we will face.
I agree with Walt Hansen regarding the passing game setting up the running game. That’s BYU’s strength and forte. The idea of the run setting up the pass is a sure way to be a mediocre team, good enough for the top 25, but not for the top ten or BCS-bound. With our tight ends now performing, the slot receiver option, three qb’s who can run the wildcat, with the wide receivers stretching the field, the passing game can kill almost any team in the nation. Then, Alisa, Foote, Pritchard, Hine, and Jamaal Williams will tear it up on the ground. That’s how we can and must go to smash Utah, then Boise State, Notre Dame and Georgia Tech. We can do it; but will we? That’s up to the coaches and their decisions.
The offensive line is slimmer and needs to toughen up giving their all on every play, not saving themselves to play the entire game. We have enough very good players on the 2nd and 3rd levels to give breathers where needed. If Tushaus is being bowled over by the nose tackle of the opposing team, then get Houston Reynolds in there. Stop the bleeding when it starts, not moan afterwards. Come on Cougars, we have the talent, let’s use it properly and win, win, win. Utah was beated by Utah State for pete’s sake. Perhaps they were looking ahead to this BYU-Utah game and got over-confident. It happens to many good teams. That’s all the more reason why we need to suck it up and play smart, smash-mouth football, without penalties, keeping our cool, taking the guff and giving it back with clean hard demolishing hits—both on offense and defense!!! We will win! BYU 38-17.
Brett-
Here you go…CougarBlue article saying the team that wins will win the war in the trenches:
http://www.heraldextra.com/sports/college/byu/football/byu-football-looks-for-strong-play-in-the-trenches-in/article_31d54662-fec8-11e1-9515-001a4bcf887a.html
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